A range and a false break, described
An illustrative sequence in words, with round numbers standing in for price. It is not taken from any real instrument or date.
- 1. RangeFor three days price oscillates between 100 and 104, turning near each edge several times.
- 2. BreakA candle trades to 104.6, above the range, and breakout traders buy.
- 3. ReversalWithin the hour price is back at 102, inside the range, and the breakout buyers' stops below 104 are hit.
The range was real and the break was false - this time. On another day the same break might have run. Knowing the market was ranging changed which risk the trader was taking, not the odds of the next move.